Garrett McBride [00:00:09]:
Hey there.
Elisa Louis [00:00:10]:
Welcome to get the Scoop with Smirk’s podcast where bulk ingredient conversation happens. We’re sharing our knowledge and expertise as bulk ingredient importers, tapping into the latest trends we are seeing and commenting on what that means for natural food businesses as they approach ingredient purchasing, product development, and marketing. You’ll hear the latest market reports, ingredient specifications and product applications from Smerk’s in house experts, as well as origin stories from our growers and processors around the world. Listen in for the scoop on what’s happening with bulk ingredients.
Elisa Louis [00:00:50]:
Hello and welcome back to get the scoop with Smirk’s. We’re thrilled to bring you episode 18. And yeah, I know it’s been a while, but we’re back. So today I’m joined by my colleagues, Jessica Warden, VP of Sales, Business Development, and Garrett McBride, our VP of Operations. And in this episode, we’re diving into the fall 2025 harvest. I know, it’s crazy. We’re already here. We are getting into football season.
Elisa Louis [00:01:18]:
We’re somehow thinking about leaves changing and Halloween and all those things. It doesn’t feel like we’re there yet, but we are, folks. And we’re going to be covering bulk organic and conventional nuts, seeds, grains, coconut and dried fruits. And this time of year, there’s a lot of buzz happening because bulk ingredient users want to know what’s happening. They want to know what the projections are for the coming season. So our goal today is really to give you some clear takeaways. We want to talk to you about what’s happening with supply and demand, the pricing outlook, why the market is moving the way that it is, recommendations for coverage and contracting. So those are the key things.
Elisa Louis [00:02:06]:
And the Smirk’s team doesn’t have a crystal ball, but we’ll do our best to provide insights on the markets based on the intel that we have now. And we’re also going to dive into tariffs, who pays them, how Smurx is handling them, and most importantly, how we’re keeping our customers in the loop. So without further ado, Jessica and Garrett, I say grab your scoop and let’s dig in. Oh, no.
Jessica Warden [00:02:34]:
This is exciting. Elisa, glad to be here. Glad to be here, Garrett. As Elisa mentioned, fall is always such a really dynamic time, both inside of the food supply chain, but also I just one of my favorite seasons. Personally, I can’t believe that it’s already, gosh, that we’re here, but it’ll be Christmas before we know it. And so before that happens, let’s get some information out there for all of our friends and the old food supply.
Garrett McBride [00:03:03]:
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for having me too. I’m excited to be here. It’s been a while. We need to get our shops back.
Garrett McBride [00:03:08]:
From an operations perspective, this is when.
Garrett McBride [00:03:10]:
Things really heat up.
Garrett McBride [00:03:11]:
This is the fun time of year. We’re busy coordinating supply chains, monitoring crop quality, making sure that we’re positioned in a way that we can support our customers adequately. There’s definitely plenty to talk about this season.
Elisa Louis [00:03:25]:
All right, well, before we jump into the market reports Garrett, I’m hoping you can really shed some light on an important topic on a lot of people’s minds. How do tariffs on imported ingredients impact buyers? And how is Smirk’s handling these types of changes that are going on right now?
Garrett McBride [00:03:44]:
As often as we possibly can, our customers are informed about the pricing changes as a result of the tariffs that have been imposed by the federal government. In order to make your lives easier, our customers lives easier, we are able to break out the tariff costs separately as a completely unique line item from the product costs on order confirmations. Just to be aware, Smirk’s doesn’t mark up the tariffs. We’re not in business to gouge as a result of these incremental costs. These are a pass through whatever Smirk’s is charged. We charge our customers straight through. Our goal is to keep our customers to keep you informed, confident, and feeling supported. And as always, we welcome any questions about the tariffs and the pricings because it is a confusing landscape to navigate.
Jessica Warden [00:04:31]:
Yep, definitely.
Elisa Louis [00:04:32]:
Thanks so much for giving us that rundown, Garrett. I know it can be pretty confusing and let’s face it, tariffs are influencing buying patterns when one country’s tariff is lower than another or sourcing can shift pretty quickly. With this in mind, Smirk’s is also just keep in mind that we also offer domestically produced ingredients and it’s starting to be the case that sometimes the US Products are becoming more competitive than the imported products these days. So that’s something to keep in mind and I just as soon jump right into it here. Let’s get into the heart of the matter. First off, love to chat about nuts. So what are we seeing right now in terms of the organic and conventional nut market? Jessica, what are you saying?
Jessica Warden [00:05:28]:
It’s actually a really interesting time in the nut market in the sense that we would have expected to be knee deep in almond and walnut contracts. And in some cases folks are right. There’s some coverage and some stuff on the books, but there’s also a little bit of uncertainty happening, especially in almonds. And so I know Garrett will touch on that a little bit. But like with walnuts, the crop is looking good. There was some favorable outlook, great weather, a lot of good news around the bloom, but we’re just starting to see where I think coming off of last year’s very tight crop and supply. It’s all good news, but it’s one of those things where it’s still just as shy, a little bit early, where the walnut objective measurement report usually comes out early September. So we’re just about a week early here with this information.
Jessica Warden [00:06:27]:
But everything that we’re seeing is pointing to better circumstances than last year. But coverage is still at a slight premium because there was such a shortfall last year. So keep us in mind as you start to plan for walnuts in the sense that here in the next couple of weeks is actually going to be a really good time to continue to dive back into that market.
Elisa Louis [00:06:50]:
Awesome. So the Smirk’s team will keep everybody posted on that one. And moving right along. I’d like to chat a little bit about hazelnuts. I had a great conversation with Troy Johnson, the president of Hazelnut Growers of Oregon. And he spent 30 years in the nut business and closely following hazelnuts, so definitely appreciate his. Exactly. Yeah.
Elisa Louis [00:07:17]:
So he gave me some scoop. And the organic and conventional numbers for hazelnuts are combined. So just so you know, when we talk these numbers, it’s both. So the Turkish crop is like 480,000 metric tons with 150,000 metric ton carryover, but that’s down from 920,000 metric overall crop last year. Yeah, so I mean, he says it’s really. There’s a lot of combinations happening here, but it’s due to frost, bugs and drought in the main growing areas in Turkey and Turkish, interest rates are just sky high and the processors also can’t afford the bank financing to go out and buy the nuts. So unless they have the cash on hand, that’s another tough situation that’s happening. And just in general, the crop is late and there’s a significant number of blanks on the trees.
Elisa Louis [00:08:17]:
So you’re probably not surprised to hear that as well because a lot of us have already heard the fact that some of the growing areas in Turkey have impacted the apricot and the fig growing areas, but it’s really the same situation that we’re facing here. So, I mean, at lower elevations, the crop was fair bit better, but still not great better. In the higher elevations though, Italy is like 50% of its normal production and it’s like the third biggest producer in the world. The Chilean crop is good, but that said, they have a lower processing capacity. So this year it’s actually looking like the USA is expecting a record crop of 119,000 metric tons, which is like 34% higher than last year. So domestic processors are going to really try to balance out the demand for this item and the USA could be a great option for high quality product this year.
Garrett McBride [00:09:29]:
Yeah, that’s great news.
Elisa Louis [00:09:31]:
Yeah. So, I mean, that’s. There’s a silver lining.
Jessica Warden [00:09:34]:
Thing I’ve learned just over the last couple years, kind of sitting in on some of these like PTMPA pieces, is that the varietals are changing in the US Growing regions, so they’re a little bit more robust. And they’ve had to really deal with some of the varietals that were susceptible to like a very specific bug that I can’t remember off the top of my head now, but that should help. And obviously we’re seeing it in the numbers. And then the other really fun part is that some of the varietals can now start to be blanched, which was always the tough thing with the US option, was that it had a hard time being blanched and coming through that process. So that would be one to keep watching. I think it’ll be fun to see what happens with US hazelnuts there.
Elisa Louis [00:10:17]:
It definitely will. And the indication is that they really want to try to service the market. They want to try to put out a reasonable price because they want this product to continue to grow and they feel like there’s an opportunity for hazelnuts to have their moment. Yeah. So, I mean, the processors are going to do their best from the US perspective to get out a reasonable price that people can still bear and still grow the market because they see that the product could very well have its moment the way pistachios have had. And that’s kind of their perspective. But in brief, the recommendation is really, if you’re going to get Turkish products, seek coverage sooner than later because near the end of the season they just may not be able to come through with the product, unfortunately. And then you can be booking pretty much year round for USA products.
Elisa Louis [00:11:18]:
So that’s again the bright spot in the market.
Jessica Warden [00:11:22]:
Shameless sales plug. We have a little bit of organic Turkish on hand now, so give your trader a ring if you need some short term immediate coverage.
Elisa Louis [00:11:31]:
There you go.
Garrett McBride [00:11:32]:
Lock it up.
Jessica Warden [00:11:33]:
Yes.
Elisa Louis [00:11:33]:
Yeah, exactly. Great. Well, speaking of that almond market that Jessica alluded to, let’s dive right into it. Garrett, what do you have for us?
Garrett McBride [00:11:45]:
You bet, yeah. The same growing conditions, the positive growing conditions that Jessica mentioned around walnuts were, are the factors in play for almonds as well. In the Central Valley of California, it was a really good year for beef. Light for weather. Conditions were really great. However, there’s some contradictory information flying around out there about almonds. USDA released their objective report a few weeks back and they were predicting a massive crop, a 3 billion pound crop waiting to be harvested, which is great news for buyers. However, those in the almond world are convinced that the USDA number is severely overstated.
Garrett McBride [00:12:22]:
Their estimates within the almond industry are more in the 2.6 to 2.8 billion pound range. So we’ll have to see what shakes off. Literally. The harvest is currently underway and then with minimal carry in, most sellers are not on the market until they see what actually comes off the trees. So in the next three to four weeks or so, the situation should become a bit more clear. And we’re pulling for £3 billion.
Jessica Warden [00:12:49]:
Yep. And I mean, that’s one thing to note there too is the organic market is such a small composition or a makeup of that larger number. And so that’s even been projected to be slightly tighter and you’ve got some, not nearly as many players in that game. So we’re seeing organic pretty firm right now and like Garrett said, not a lot of carryover. So not a lot of offers, not a lot of even stocks where people were holding stuff to carry them through new crops. So that’s one we’re watching pretty closely because we do have a lot of interest early, but not a lot of folks ready to make some offers and get some stuff booked.
Elisa Louis [00:13:28]:
So the two of you are your thoughts basically to get in touch with Smirk’s and say, hey, I’m going to be needing this amount or this amount and as soon as you can put an offer in front of me, do so. Is that your recommendation, especially for organic?
Jessica Warden [00:13:44]:
I would definitely say so. It’s like trying to get into that new restaurant that’s opening and you want to get on the wait list so that you’re first in line for that phone call. That’s what we’re doing here, I think.
Garrett McBride [00:13:54]:
Yeah.
Garrett McBride [00:13:54]:
Bring your forecast so we can, we can have some productive conversations around the planning pieces and then as soon as the market opens up a bit, we’ll have a, hopefully a jump on competition.
Elisa Louis [00:14:05]:
Perfect. Awesome. Well, thanks for that important update on almonds and, and Jessica. We’ve all heard about the Dubai chocolate craze. It’s wild. So how has that really affected the pistachio market. And what do you see like going forward for this season?
Jessica Warden [00:14:22]:
Well, I mean, depending on who you chat with, you get some people who are like, oh yeah, that’s a fad that’s worked its way to its peak and is on its downward trend. And then I think it’s also still a little bit to be determined because you’re coming into the holiday like season. So obviously most of the production has been done for some of that stuff. But I think it’ll be interesting to see the consumer sentiments through the holiday around Dubai Chocolate, see how much it continues to carry and then that’ll be timed obviously with new crops. So it’s just kind of interesting. I for one am still loving the Dubai chocolate and I like that there’s like 10 different options in the grocery store that you can get at anyone any one time. Like, yes, they don’t mind if I do try this new Dubai Chocolate. So but I think what’s it’s been interesting and whether it’s Dubai chocolate or some other thing, I think one of the things the pistachio especially some of the big players here in the US have done is just develop a market around that item.
Jessica Warden [00:15:22]:
So if it’s not going into Dubai Chocolate, there’s always some outlet that they are really pushing. And so it’s one of our favorite premium nuts. And so the crop is this is basically you, you see an on year, off year. Last year was a little bit of an off year relative to output. So this is what you, what folks say is an on year. So in shell production is estimated to about 726,000 metric tons and it represents a 44% increase from last season. So that kind of shows you that on off year. And the other thing that’s very interesting right now is that export demand has been pretty subdued in these early or in these last couple months.
Jessica Warden [00:16:05]:
We’re in the same position as almonds and walnuts where not everything has really shaken out and harvest is just kind of starting to get underway. So a lot of these numbers are preliminary projections. But between the increase in supply and the demand from overseas being a little subdued, even with the tight carryover from last year, we’re in a pretty good position. So right now it’s a really great time for buyers where we have some high incoming supply, some soft near term export demand creates a pretty favorable environment for securing some of those forward and spot contracts and really maybe getting some much better pricing, especially relative to the surges in pricing that we saw at the end of this last year. And I mean, if you were to ask somebody for pistachios right now, there’s just really none to be found. So I know people are. Are waiting with bated breath that, you know, availability and so that they can make some more Dubai chocolate, I think, is what it’s all about. So.
Garrett McBride [00:17:03]:
Sounds like that’s about to change.
Elisa Louis [00:17:06]:
Right on. Well, thanks for that. Good stuff. And I’m really curious about pecans. I mean, Garrett, maybe you can enlighten us, because the growing regions were hit pretty hard by Hurricane Helene in September last year. And from what I understand, I mean, a lot of the mature trees were lost. So that said, what are they predicting kind of going forward? What’s that look like?
Garrett McBride [00:17:31]:
Yeah, you’re correct. I mean, between the hurricane losses on the east coast and the fact that it isn’t off season this year, pecan markets are expected to remain pretty firm throughout the coming year. 2025 crop is expected to be about 22 to 25% less than last year in 2024, but demand continues to increase. So obviously we’re moving in different directions there, and it’s not. Not helping. From a cost ability standpoint. Organic pecans will be even more constrained. It’s a proportionality game.
Garrett McBride [00:18:04]:
There’s only so many organic trees and orchards in existence, and they represent a certain portion of the entire capacity. And when the entire capacity is low, the entire capacity of the organic crop is low as well. We recommend those who are planning to consume large quantities of pecans, especially when it comes to organic, should probably lock in most of their needs for the coming years. Year and the next few months to ensure availability. It’s going to be a tough one.
Jessica Warden [00:18:32]:
Yeah. I mean, and I think one of the things that we’ve seen is pricing has been pretty firm as we’ve ended the season. And so sometimes people hesitate to cover because they see prices kind of high. But I definitely don’t think there’s really a lot where we’re poised for a major softening or a major correction. So if you’re able to get bookings now at kind of today’s pricing, I think it’s pretty indicative of what we’ll see even as new crop availability comes forward.
Garrett McBride [00:18:58]:
So it’s probably not going to get better.
Jessica Warden [00:19:01]:
Yeah.
Elisa Louis [00:19:02]:
Sounds like reasonable advice in these times for pecans. Good to know. All right. Well, Jessica, what are we hearing about pine nuts this season? I mean, I’m always just so amazed when I see the image of the collectors climbing the trees to grab the Cones. It just blows my mind. And it’s just not surprising that it’s such a premium product. But what can we really expect this coming season?
Jessica Warden [00:19:31]:
I think the summer season is really going to be interesting in that last season cedars were had an off year and the red variety kind of made up the difference. We’re hearing that cedars are having a similar crop size as last year. So again, not anticipated to be a large crop. But we’re also hearing that the red pine nut crop will be smaller than last year. So where there was a little bit of gap made up or coverage gap made up by the other variety, we might not see that as much this year. Couple that with the fact that there’s such heavy tariffs being levied against anything that’s grown in China. It makes the Yunnan option not necessarily cost prohibitive, but certainly not where it was in the past. And so what we’re seeing is the varieties that are grown maybe in Mongolia or other areas that are then processed in China are offering the best value, but they’re just not quite as plentiful.
Jessica Warden [00:20:31]:
So we’ll definitely be watching that. Market pricing has surged over the last couple of weeks even, but I mean, that’s pine nuts for you. They’re probably one of the most volatile commodities that we follow. And so again, that’s a. This is what we know right now and we’ll keep watching it. We at SMURC still have a pretty decent coverage and supply available in warehouse from current crop. And we’ll be working on planning for forward coverage. But that’s definitely one of those ones that’s like cover what you need and maybe don’t jump out too, too far in the future unless you’re just really sure that you’re going to need like the seeder specifically or you know, a specific varietal that you want to make sure to get before coverage isn’t available.
Elisa Louis [00:21:15]:
Appreciate those insights. Thanks so much on that. And when we turn to macadamia nuts, the landscape from macadamia nuts has just changed so much in the last couple of years. I remember back in 2023 when there was a big supply in the prices of this historical, historically premium nut had pretty much dipped into the area of being very much affordable. Then by the middle of the last year, I’d say demand started to increase and stocks tightened up. What’s it looking like for 2025 for Max?
Jessica Warden [00:21:53]:
Jessica Yeah, I mean, I definitely remember that huge drop and I was relatively new to the industry, so for me that relative change was not as shocking. Or maybe as shocking as it should have been without the context, but I actually was just looking the other day at some indications of old pricing indications I had give. I stumbled across and I saw what I was offering max for and I. My jaw hit the floor and I was just like, wow, they should have definitely bought at that price, you know. So that’s kind of max for 2025 In a nutshell, so to speak. This in the high will definitely remain tight. South Africa, which is one of our larger as a US import, that’s one of the places we get larger producing regions that we source from. So they’re seeing a decline in their crop about 4% is what’s being projected right now.
Jessica Warden [00:22:46]:
And then Australia’s harvest is down pretty substantially, so it’s abound by about 30%. So that really leaves Kenya and a couple other growing regions like Guatemala to offer some of the pressure relief for that. But it’s just going to be interesting to see because there’s just not going to be quite as much availability. And again, premium nut, premium prices, the tariffs, it all kind of just compounds really. So we don’t anticipate a lot of softening. There’s just not a lot of things indicating a market correction here in the near future. So I would say the limited availability combined with the rising trade frictions make early contracting really important. So if you haven’t looked at some of your coverage needs now, it’s definitely a great time to reach out and secure and then that will help some of those price pressure increases and then we’ll start to get some more information in early Q1 about what the next growing cycle will look like.
Jessica Warden [00:23:45]:
So really you just got to kind of plan for this time through into Q1 of next year to really get a jump on that. Smirks has some great options for organic style ones, fours and sixes arriving here in mid to late September. And then we’ll have another wave of organic Macs hitting our warehouses in late Q4. So we’re well positioned where not everything’s been allocated and contracted. So we can definitely help with some of that planning going forward.
Elisa Louis [00:24:14]:
Great news that we have availability. Awesome. So if we shift gears going into cashews, we’ve seen a lot of demand for cashews arising and I’m just looking at it thinking, Garrett, how is this shift affecting the market and what’s really happening on the supply side with cashews?
Garrett McBride [00:24:39]:
Yeah, you’re absolutely right, Elise. The global demand is definitely on the rise, led by China, India and the usa and who can blame people? It’s a great nut. Unfortunately for buyers, though, supply is not keeping pace with the demand increases. Raw nut Raw cashew nut supplies have been very difficult to come by this year for a variety of reasons, probably the biggest being the weather. African growing regions have had extreme drought and heat that’s constrained their raw cashew nut supply. Vietnam has experienced some monsoon weather patterns that resulted in excessive moisture which constrained their supply. In fact, they’re importing a lot of nuts from Cambodia. That all being said, Vietnam’s still going to show less this season, even with the imports from Cambodia than they did last year in 2024.
Garrett McBride [00:25:29]:
So it’s going to be a somewhat challenging year for cashews from a raw material standpoint elsewhere in the world. The reciprocal tariff situation here in the US is functionally removed Brazil’s cashew volume from play, which is so cost prohibitive, especially when it comes to organic nuts. These tariffs have just put a lot of additional pressure on the market and made a challenging situation that much more difficult to navigate. Right now, whole kernels are pretty readily available. Broken grades are getting harder and harder to source. So our recommendation, if you’re buying or in the market for cashews, bring us your forecast. Now let’s evaluate what’s available, what we anticipate being available, get your contracts set up so that we can ensure that you have adequate supply for the coming year. Regardless of what happens, let us leverage our long term existing supply partners and options for you.
Elisa Louis [00:26:28]:
Sounds like great advice. Appreciate that. Update on cashews and I’m going to give us an update on Brazil nuts. I know the harvest season normally runs like December to April across Brazil, Bolivia and Peru, and it peaks like January through March. There have been some major disruptions though. The 2025 harvest was hit pretty hard by an extreme drought in the Amazon. And then you couple that with political and economic turmoil going on in Bolivia, who’s the largest exporter. It’s been challenging.
Elisa Louis [00:27:07]:
They’ve had actually violent competition for raw material collectors. And also those raw material collectors are being restricted due to illegal mining going on in some of the areas. So it’s been a real challenge. Plus the fact that there’s a severe foreign currency shortage really since 2024, which is paralyzed the sector. So production is really seeing a decline. Brazil saw communities lose up to 80% of their crop. Overall harvest was expected to be down like 30 to 45% versus normal. Roos crop fell about 20%.
Elisa Louis [00:27:52]:
But it’s complicated by inflows of smuggled Bolivian Nuts. So that’s a little bit muddled, but again, there’s a real market impact here. The Brazil nut market is facing one of the tightest suppliers of recent memory. With the drought and instability going on, it’s really going to reshape the 2025, 2026 outlook. So looking ahead to 2026, we definitely expect prices to. To remain high. And I think we all know that they’ve just been difficult to find. I mean, Brazil nuts, there’s not a lot of offers out there, so this is definitely one where you’re going to want to put your needs out there, and we’ll do our best to lock it up for you.
Jessica Warden [00:28:41]:
Yep, this one’s interesting in the sense that it is also so volatile because it’s gathered versus, I mean, obviously drought impacts how much the yields come off the tree, but some of the supply availability is really tied to the economics of what it means to gather this commodity. So as prices creep up, the collectors that are on the ground have more incentive to go further in to the where the nuts are. But then again, as the market comes down after supply eases, they have less incentivization to go further. So the supply demand volatility with this is unique to things like Brazil nuts, and even pine nuts are kind of similar. So, again, it’s nice to know that we can plan ahead for where we can. But very interesting about the drought and the other pieces that you mentioned influencing the pricing. I hadn’t realized all those factors were at play.
Elisa Louis [00:29:39]:
Yeah, there’s just some security challenges where even the most incentivized collector might be a little bit nervous right now.
Jessica Warden [00:29:46]:
Right. Yeah, that makes sense. Crazy.
Elisa Louis [00:29:49]:
Well, we’ll definitely see how it goes. But if you can get your hands on Brazil nuts, if you get an offer, I probably it’s a good idea to pull the trigger on it, I’d say.
Jessica Warden [00:30:02]:
What do you think, Garrett? You think I could start growing some of them in my backyard? Some trees?
Garrett McBride [00:30:06]:
I think so. And I’ll come collect them if I’m so incentivized.
Jessica Warden [00:30:09]:
All right, great. Well, enough about Brazil nuts. Yeah.
Garrett McBride [00:30:16]:
Yeah.
Elisa Louis [00:30:17]:
All right, well, hey, let’s shift gears a little bit away from nuts. Let’s take a look at the seeds and grains. This is a big category for smurks, and I’d say the biggest, and therefore I want you both to weigh in, is for, as far as we’re concerned, is really sunflower seeds. So tell me about what’s happening. You guys decide who starts. Go.
Garrett McBride [00:30:45]:
Jessica, how about it?
Jessica Warden [00:30:48]:
All right.
Elisa Louis [00:30:48]:
I’LL go.
Jessica Warden [00:30:52]:
So this is an item that we track really closely actually both domestically and from overseas. We have active imports from the EU growing regions and then we also work very closely with some of our very best partners actually that we work with in the industry and longstanding partners are from the US market. So I can speak a little bit more to the domestic market where we’re starting to see that the confectionary grade or confectionary types kernel planting acres are down as a kind of year over year comparison. And they’ve really been kind of swapped out with like the black oil variety being planted in the, in their place. And a lot of that has. It’s kind of like a two pronged thing. So some of it is because they’re growers are trying to bolster the availability for seeds for crushing. But there’s also this regulation relating to the different pesticides that can be used to manage certain weevils and it impacts the ability to successfully grow and have high yields on some of the food grade options.
Jessica Warden [00:31:58]:
So it’s actually a little bit more advantageous for farmers to grow like bird seed and oil grade variety this year. So it’s kind of like this is the, the path of least resistance, so to speak. So we’re starting to see domestic supply slightly constrained there. But again they had some decent growing conditions so there was some heat there for a while where people weren’t sure how it was going to pan out. But in the last couple weeks there’s been some good weather as seeds are really getting to the point where they’ll start to come off. And still, even with some of the things that we’re seeing, conventional supply out of the US is at a cost advantage to some of the supply out of Bulgaria really because of the, if you consider the tariff impacts, domestic organic supply is a little bit of a different story in that planting acres are down and they’re usually pretty constrained. And just the economics around how much farmers need to grow organic is pretty high relative to the EU counterparts. So even with the added tariffs, we’re still seeing where the organic options out of the EU are going to be a little bit better.
Jessica Warden [00:33:12]:
But I definitely welcome your thoughts on this, Elisa and Garrett.
Garrett McBride [00:33:17]:
Yeah, you know exactly right. Agree with everything you said. We’re focusing on Eastern Europe. We’re mostly talking about the organic.
Garrett McBride [00:33:26]:
At least over the past year we’ve seen these markets come off significantly this time last year was a very different story between conflict and drought and factors. Right now the harvest is currently underway in the primary Growing regions in Eastern Europe. We’re talking about Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey. And expectations are of course slightly higher yield than last year’s, which is good for conventional and organic. Organics should be in reasonable supply, should be accessible now. Global demand for some sort or other has dipped significantly and the markets as a result are flat.
Garrett McBride [00:34:04]:
So now would be a really good time to lock in to those favorable economics. Availability shouldn’t necessarily be a near or midterm concern, but you know, the price is right right now. Jump in.
Jessica Warden [00:34:16]:
Yeah, and I definitely think we have some good positions already built up. So for us to be able to help in the near midterm smarts is positioned. But you know, if you’re looking for even planning beyond that, you’re right. It’s a great time to do so.
Elisa Louis [00:34:30]:
So this is one of those interesting years when the domestic and the imported product are a little bit closer to the same playing field, seems like and.
Garrett McBride [00:34:40]:
The tariffs coming into play certainly aren’t helping the Eastern Europe markets.
Elisa Louis [00:34:45]:
Right. Very good. Well appreciate that so much. Kind of excited to see how it keeps going, but looks like people can go ahead and get their coverage and go from there, make their decision about us or imported. Great. Well, let’s shift gears to talk about another really big product that smirks works with all the time, which is pumpkin seeds. And we’ve got some interesting options this coming season with pumpkin. But to start off, Jessica, could you give us an update on our basically our tried and true Chinese supply chains and kind of where that’s at?
Jessica Warden [00:35:31]:
Yeah. So what we’re hearing from our processing partners and kind of boots on the ground there is that new crop harvesting has begun in the north northwest China, but opening prices are higher than current crop levels, which has really done a funny thing in country where speculators are really taking an interest and kind of increasing their confidence to hold a product and kind of slowly leak out that into the market, which is really pushing prices higher. And then there’s been word recently of some rainy conditions in some of the growing regions that have come at a time that weren’t advantageous to yields. All that being said, overall the new crop growth looks strong where the yields so even though maybe planting acres aren’t up significantly, the yields on the acres that were planted were initially indicated to look good. So again to be determined with some of this rainy news information. But there was also specifically with conventional about 100,000 metric ton carryover which has really as you start to come out of this year and into next, it helps really sustain the domestic in country demand while also still allowing exporters or folks like us importers to be able to get some decent value with products. So conventional is looking good right now. It’s a good time to buy.
Jessica Warden [00:36:55]:
I do think that walking in now would be advantageous. There’s not going to be this major softening in the coming months. Organic, on the other hand, seems to be a little bit of a different story in that planted acreage is down and yields are. Yields for this year are anticipated to be smaller than last year already. And then like I said, news of this rain that just came out within the last couple days. We’ll see how that impacts everything. So our recommendation is definitely to book out through the end really as far as you are needing into next year. So Smirk’s is comfortable about trying to go and get things locked up and into the warehouse and so we can help service some of those accounts because we’re really bullish on what will happen with that pricing.
Elisa Louis [00:37:42]:
Gotcha. Thanks so much for giving us the important China update. And I’d say it’s been probably since maybe 2020 where smirks has really gotten a lot of feedback from buyers that have said, well, okay, there’s the Chinese product, but what else do you have for us? What other origins can you give us? And I think that’s something that we’ve explored for a while. I mean certainly there’s the product out of Europe, but it’s always been at a shorter supply and different cost structures, different varieties.
Jessica Warden [00:38:15]:
Yeah.
Elisa Louis [00:38:16]:
Different spec. Right. So what I’m pretty interested to hear about is for Garrett to enlighten us about kind of a new emerging origin that we’re going to be working with out of Smirk’s for Pumpkin.
Jessica Warden [00:38:34]:
When you would cue the drum roll sound bite from the editor.
Garrett McBride [00:38:40]:
Yeah, this is some super exciting news. Elisa Smirks has joined forces with a long term processing partner to have exclusive access to Turkish. Turkish shine skin pumpkin kernels. Say that five times fast. Turkish shine skin pumpkin kernels.
Jessica Warden [00:38:57]:
There you go.
Garrett McBride [00:38:58]:
As discussed, we’ve been seeing the growing demand for non Chinese everything and shine skin pumpkin is usually one of the more challenging commodities to source outside of China in very large quantities is a great option with the reciprocal tariffs being what they are in China north of 50%. Everybody needs options and this is going to be a game changer in this industry. I’m traveling to Turkey early September, so in about three weeks to qualify the farms, the cleaning lines and the pasteurization line with this partner. And if all goes well, we will soon be the Exclusive importer of one of the largest volumes of shine skin pumpkin outside of China. So stay tuned as this project develops. But this is a super cool project.
Jessica Warden [00:39:46]:
And if it doesn’t go well, we’re going to blame Garrett in full effect.
Garrett McBride [00:39:50]:
It’s my job to manage risk. If it doesn’t go well, all your fault. It’s going to go great. We have nothing but confidence.
Jessica Warden [00:39:56]:
Exactly. Exactly. As being in sales. I mean, we definitely do. Even before the tariff talks, there was just always that demand for. Mainly because people just want that different labeling or that different story for their customers. And so I’m excited. It’ll be cool.
Jessica Warden [00:40:15]:
And we’ve already seen some samples and it’s very. There’s an uncanny resemblance. Like they’re truly shine skin. It’s not like, oh, that kind of looks like what we. It’s very spot on. They can also do the GWs, so just like we can get from the EU counterparts. So there’s a couple different options there, but we’re excited to continue to develop this narrative for our customers and see what. What it looks like for several crop years to come.
Garrett McBride [00:40:42]:
Yeah, demand is going to be through the roof for this.
Elisa Louis [00:40:45]:
That’s great. I mean, the nice thing is that we can provide options and.
Jessica Warden [00:40:49]:
Right.
Elisa Louis [00:40:49]:
For those that want to go with the Chinese product, that is great. They can continue. But now we’ll have another option for those that are looking for a different origin for their labels. So.
Garrett McBride [00:41:02]:
Sure.
Elisa Louis [00:41:03]:
It’s always a great thing to have diversity of choice, right?
Jessica Warden [00:41:07]:
Yes, yes, exactly.
Elisa Louis [00:41:08]:
Absolutely awesome. Well, we can’t wait to hear more from Garrett when he gets back. But in the mean pictures in the.
Jessica Warden [00:41:16]:
Meantime, when you’re there.
Elisa Louis [00:41:22]:
Ah, yes, Absolutely. Awesome. Well, hey, let’s get right into the good old drama that we always have every year with Chia. How about it? But no jokes.
Jessica Warden [00:41:33]:
I don’t know what you’re talking about. Chia has never been dramatic, Elisa. That’s never been a thing.
Garrett McBride [00:41:38]:
Yeah, no jokes. There’s always something going on with Chia. And this season, no exception, the number one producer of Chia in South America is Paraguay. And they experienced a catastrophic late frost this year. I mean, just about a month, month and a half ago. Frost is bad at the end of the growing season for Chia. Some are estimating that about half of this new crop was damaged or destroyed, which is just bad for everybody. Chia markets are extremely firm, as you can imagine, and with no carry in supplies this season are going to be critically limited as a result of those.
Garrett McBride [00:42:16]:
Those frost events. And that lack of carry in, it would definitely be in buyers best interest to reach out to our sales team and discuss availability and contract needs really for the rest of this crop year to make sure that you have your coverage is covered. Organic and pasteurized Chia will be an especially short supply. So make sure that. Make sure that you’re starting those conversations now and making sure that your needs are taken care of as soon as you possibly can.
Jessica Warden [00:42:46]:
Yeah. And I would also just add, part of what makes Chia so dramatic is just the cultural differences in the way that we do business versus other countries. And it comes in full effect when working with the Chia growing regions. Sometimes we don’t get the most straightforward communication from our partners. And so it makes it tough for us to be able to then develop real time information and updates for our customers. So we definitely get all of that out as soon as we can. But trying to get the real picture a lot of times becomes a challenge. And so I know for when you’re a buyer here in the United States and you don’t necessarily have that view all the way back to origin with some of these supply chains, it seems like some of this information comes like you’re caught off guard or feel like, wait, I thought we could buy this.
Jessica Warden [00:43:31]:
And then all of a sudden pricing is double. So we experience the same thing from the import side a lot with specific growing regions. And Chia seems to fall right into that mix. So that’s definitely why it stays real spicy around here as we follow Chia and the drama. So it’s no different this year.
Garrett McBride [00:43:52]:
That’s a great point.
Garrett McBride [00:43:53]:
It might be the end of this current season before we actually know how much was actually harvested. With almonds, we’ll know in a couple of months. With Chia, we won’t know until the end of it. With such conflicting accounts, I guess what.
Elisa Louis [00:44:06]:
You guys are saying is better to be safe than sorry. Cover yourself generously.
Garrett McBride [00:44:13]:
Well put.
Elisa Louis [00:44:15]:
Yeah, good to know. All right, well, I’m going to kind of lump some of these seeds and grains together because they tend to be those items that some of the same buyers work with. So that’ll be flax, sesame, and amaranth. Jessica, could you kind of enlighten us on that trio of ingredients and what’s happening?
Jessica Warden [00:44:38]:
Oh, yes, and actually I say that so confidently, but these are probably some of the items that I don’t know as strongly as some of the other ones we’ve talked about. But we get these items from a couple different growing regions. So while they are lumped together, they don’t necessarily follow some of the same pathways. So flax, sesame and amaranth we can import from India and we also do get some sesame from Pakistan this year is is interesting in that tariffs out of India are. Have been pretty volatile and unstable. So it’s actually causing us to reach out to figure out like some different alternatives with supply for those and then flax. Whereas there’s been times where similar to like the US EU debacle with sunflower or like flax is very similar. Like it doesn’t make sense to get Northern hemisphere or excuse me, not Northern Hemisphere, North American flax versus product out of India.
Jessica Warden [00:45:31]:
And that’s always kind of what we look at every year. And it seems like this year flax out of Canada is going to be the better option, except for we’re starting to get some information trickle in about some of the yields. And especially with organic flaxseed supply, their seeded area is projected to fall and it’s actually going to be one of the smallest plantings since the 1950s. And so that’ll impact things in ways that maybe we don’t quite understand at this point, but with the sharply reduced output and there was tight carryout and then combine that with kind of the unsteady footing that we have with some of these imported options. I feel like it’s a very much similar to Chia, like better safe than sorry. Start getting with your traders about what coverage you’re needing. If you do have origins or specific suppliers dialed in, it might make sense to start being a little bit more flexible or vetting alternative supply chains. So.
Jessica Warden [00:46:35]:
And again, that one I. I’m not living and breathing as much as some of the other ones. So we will put that with an asterisk and if there’s any updates, we.
Elisa Louis [00:46:43]:
Will follow up with you all.
Garrett McBride [00:46:44]:
And that massive potential tariff that’s being finalized right now imposed on goods from India is certainly going to play into these markets.
Jessica Warden [00:46:54]:
Yes.
Garrett McBride [00:46:54]:
Talking north of 50 or 50%.
Jessica Warden [00:46:57]:
Right. Right.
Elisa Louis [00:46:59]:
On that note, it’s just going to be interesting to see if the situation in Canada changes as well.
Jessica Warden [00:47:06]:
Right.
Elisa Louis [00:47:06]:
When our current agreement is expired, what’s going to happen there? So I’m sure that’s going to be interesting from a trade perspective what happens with the Canadian as well as the Mexican crops.
Garrett McBride [00:47:20]:
Right.
Jessica Warden [00:47:20]:
Yep. Yep.
Garrett McBride [00:47:21]:
It’s definitely something fun on the horizon.
Jessica Warden [00:47:23]:
And kick that can down the road, Elisa. That’s what we’re doing. Problem for another day.
Elisa Louis [00:47:30]:
Yep. You got it.
Jessica Warden [00:47:32]:
Yeah.
Elisa Louis [00:47:34]:
So we’ve talked a lot about Just the sheer demand and popularity of oats on this podcast before, but I think it’s really. So to that point, it’s really important for us to give a good market update on. Oh, it’s so, Garrett, where are we at?
Garrett McBride [00:47:51]:
Yeah, I really don’t want to jinx things by speaking too positively, prematurely, but the new crop votes in Canada looks to be in really great shape. This whole growing season in most of the regions, with some exceptions here and there, was very favorable for growth and development of these crops. Our hopes are high as the harvest is just getting underway right now. Some sources indicate 5 to 7% increase in the oats planted this year versus last year. Moderate carry in and just continuing to see increased demand for oats across the board. So a lot of positivity there. Availability shouldn’t be an issue this crop year. But as always, early contracts will provide, you know, longer term cost, ability, predictability at very competitive rates.
Garrett McBride [00:48:46]:
But availability shouldn’t be much of a concern this year.
Jessica Warden [00:48:51]:
Cool.
Elisa Louis [00:48:52]:
I like the sound of that. High demand.
Garrett McBride [00:48:54]:
It’s nice to have good news every once in a while.
Elisa Louis [00:48:56]:
Yeah. If we can bring it to the people who need their oat milk. Right.
Garrett McBride [00:49:03]:
Lots of granola to be consumed.
Elisa Louis [00:49:07]:
Right on. Okay. Well, another item that we’ve definitely seen an uptick, especially when you’re talking about the flakes, is quinoa. Quinoa flakes have just been kind of crazy. But we should talk about whole quinoa as well. Jessica, what do you have for us on that?
Jessica Warden [00:49:24]:
Well, Peru and Bolivia experienced some heavy rains in early spring, which delayed the quinoa planting. And so we’re actually seeing significant impacts to yields on quinoa, which then in turn, any kind of quinoa derivatives like flakes end up tightening as well. And so we are hearing and are seeing firsthand that the crop is anticipated to remain short through the rest of this year. And quinoa isn’t necessarily. It’s not a fall harvest commodity. There’s a smaller harvest in some of the growing regions in November, but again, we’re not hearing positive news about that. But typically we start to see new crop offers in May, April time frame. April, May time frame.
Jessica Warden [00:50:11]:
I should say that chronologically. And then shipments for new crops start to leave and hit the United States June, July area. And we really didn’t see the relief that was needed this last go around. So we came in with not a lot of carryover demand was firm, and then not a lot of relief from the new crops. So this one’s going to Remain tight. Pricing has definitely firmed. We do anticipate it to continue to firm. So another one where if you’re able to cover with some floor planning, that’s definitely important with this item, especially quinoa flakes.
Jessica Warden [00:50:47]:
And the again, compounding factor is tariffs. So where we’re already seeing commodity pricing rising on the raw material, you have the added layer of the tariff impacts. So prepare for quinoa to cost more than it has historically for the last several years.
Elisa Louis [00:51:03]:
So thank you for those insights. Good to know. One of the big topics that has been all over Smirk’s has been really the coconut market. As we all know, this past season in particular, the supply has just been really tight and demand has been high, especially with significant exports of the raw nuts to China. This is a category that we watch closely, keeping tabs on what’s happening in the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Vietnam. So I’d really like for us to break it down by product category. And so maybe we can start with coconut oil. Garrett, talk to me about coconut oil.
Garrett McBride [00:51:48]:
This year has been filled with challenges for those in the world of coconuts. We’ve seen global demand continue to increase dramatically, driven heavily by China. The demand increase, coupled with very uncooperative.
Garrett McBride [00:52:00]:
Weather in the coconut growing regions has driven raw coconut cost near historic high levels. And that of course, flows through the finished specs that we import and distribute. I’ve actually in the last year visited most of the large coconut growing regions personally and seeing firsthand the challenges these farmers and producers have faced. And I don’t envy them. It’s tough between El Nino, La Nina, you name it, it’s been one thing after another for these poor folks and hoping things improve. As far as oil is concerned, VCO virgin coconut oil is pretty steadily available right now and RBD is reasonably tight. It will be in your best interest to review your forecast and make sure that you have a plan. Purchasing plan.
Garrett McBride [00:52:50]:
Costs are going to remain on the higher side, but the availability is going to be somewhat challenged, you know, as we continue to move forward.
Elisa Louis [00:52:58]:
All right, well, we appreciate the insights on the oil. And if we dive into desiccated coconut, I mean, this is a major category as well. It encompasses fine macaroon, medium chips and coconut smiles. Jessica, could you give us some insights on this market?
Jessica Warden [00:53:17]:
Oh, yes. Well, as you would imagine, desiccated coconut follows a lot of right in step with the oil market. So like Garrett mentioned in like that category, we’ve seen pricing very firm and availability remain very tight. Internally, we’ve seen demand kind of vary pretty widely by spec. So we’ve just even recently we’ve seen an uptick in inquiries for buyers for medium shred more so in the last few weeks than we had for a few months there where it seemed like stuff was pretty steady and then all of a sudden a sharp increase. And what that tells us is that the market must be drying up on some of these cuts in that maybe where someone was buying regularly before and had a pretty steady supply. Now they’re turning to other folks supply alternatives like smarts as an option. And a lot of that is being driven by the fact that for several months it was just very hard to get regular shipments out of origin.
Jessica Warden [00:54:16]:
We’re starting to see some of that ease a little bit and we do have some solid positions booked. And again not trying to jinx things, but it seems like things are flowing a little bit more steadily from origin than compared to the last three to six months. And so we’ve been working really close with our processors on both the desiccated and just availability also kind of as a segue into the next category there around manufacturers that are making coconut cream and milk because we’ve really just been managing those demands from our customers. It’s kind of hand in hand here. So recommendation on desiccated and probably oil very similar. If you can cover at least through the end of Q1 and kind of get through this level of uncertainty, that’s highly recommended. But also prepare yourself that we’re not going to see maybe a huge market correction that we everybody maybe was hoping for. I think there’s just some bigger issues in the supply chain that will keep competition for raw material tight and firm and keep processors really happening to offer pricing at higher levels to keep their production and operations running.
Garrett McBride [00:55:26]:
Yeah, definitely think it would be wise to have coverage through Q1, Q2 of next year even further.
Garrett McBride [00:55:31]:
Yeah.
Garrett McBride [00:55:32]:
Just to be.
Elisa Louis [00:55:33]:
Yeah. Appreciate that. It still seems like we’re closely navigating, carefully navigating I should say this, this part.
Jessica Warden [00:55:41]:
This is going to be one of those hindsight of this was 2020 type of things and we’re going to be like yeah, we were right on. And we’re going to be like wow, we. We sounded and didn’t know what we were talking about one or the other. Elisa, we’re right on. Yeah, I like it.
Elisa Louis [00:55:56]:
On a bright note, I feel like coconut cream is something where we’ve seen a really interesting increase in popularity and the product is flowing pretty well right now. It’s a great non dairy alternative used in Baking, cooking, beverages, desserts and other products. So I love to hear Garrett tell us more about coconut cream and kind of what’s happening there.
Garrett McBride [00:56:22]:
Yeah, it’s been really cool to see the popularity and then the demand increase around coconut cream. It’s such a cool product. So much that you can do with it. So many different options for use. Real quick, a clarification about what coconut cream is. Coconut cream is the higher fat liquid extracted from the coconut meat or the copra, not to be confused with coconut water, which is a liquid that’s present inside the kernel when you first crack it open. So just making sure we’re talking about the same things here. High cost and limited availability of the copra or the raw coconut meat have been persistent challenges for producers at origin for quite some time, leaving many producers weeks or months behind fulfilling orders.
Garrett McBride [00:57:04]:
Coconut products, including cream, have traded at near historic high levels this year, but we may be seeing a bit of relief soon. Costs are not likely to come down that much, but it’s likely we’ll see a small dip and then a more stable market moving out of 2025. The take home message here is we all need to come to terms with the fact that a higher baseline cost is the new normal for coconut products. The large players domestically are not holding very much inventory across the coconut categories and some suppliers are not offering product until Q3 of this year or Q1 of 2026. It would definitely be wise to have your needs covered again through Q2 of next year because availability is likely to be a challenge.
Jessica Warden [00:57:48]:
Yep, very well put, Garrett.
Elisa Louis [00:57:50]:
It’s really sounding like a bit of a broken record, folks, but because it’s all coming from the same cocoa nut, right?
Garrett McBride [00:58:00]:
Yeah.
Elisa Louis [00:58:01]:
But on the other hand, let’s talk about other products because it’s fun to talk about some of the stuff that we’re doing, especially coconut milk powder. What can we say about it, Garrett?
Garrett McBride [00:58:13]:
Yeah, broken record on the market conditions. Broken record on what the suppliers are dealing with. All the previously discussed market conditions and pressures also apply to the world of coconut milk powder. Coconut milk is simply the diluted coconut cream and coconut milk powder is achieved by spray drying the coconut milk. This is a really cool ingredient. Good, high quality coconut milk powder is getting hard to source these days because of raw material challenges and a number of other factors. We are excited to announce that we have reached an exclusivity agreement with one of the largest and best producers in Vietnam. They produce a variety of coconut products, but their coconut milk powder is top notch.
Garrett McBride [00:58:56]:
I’ve been Visiting this facility a couple times a year for the last few years as they’ve been building this line and the spray drying plant. And it’s beyond impressive. It’s like a surgical clean room. It’s just mind boggling. And I’ve seen a lot of factories and a lot of good and a lot of bad and this is top notch stuff. Give our sales team a call, discuss your CMP needs, request samples and taste for yourself. Really superior quality of, of this particular item.
Elisa Louis [00:59:24]:
That’s exciting news, Garrett. I mean, when you came back with the report that we had this sign sealed and delivered and it’s a beautiful factory. Just very, very fun fact that Smirk’s can really offer such robust supply chains of this item.
Garrett McBride [00:59:43]:
Yeah, that’s such a huge win for Smirk’s and for our customers. To have a partner of this caliber is all ours.
Jessica Warden [00:59:50]:
Yes, definitely. And it’s been such an item and a category that we’ve been growing for since I started here. And so it’s really awesome to see not only the growth in the consumption of the item, but just the way that Smarts has kind of been really always looking for a great solid supply option or multiple supply options for this item because it’s something that we really just believe in as a coconut item. It does a lot of. There’s a lot of really cool applications and very versatile ingredient, for sure.
Garrett McBride [01:00:18]:
Yeah, we don’t see demand for coconut milk powder falling off anytime soon. This is just going to get bigger and bigger.
Jessica Warden [01:00:24]:
Yep.
Elisa Louis [01:00:25]:
Well, speaking of growing categories, I feel like it may be still somewhat fledgling, but coconut water powder has really been growing in demand in the last few years and it’s been interesting to see like it popping up on different ingredient decks, like all the hydration products, for example. So, Garrett, talk to us about that product.
Garrett McBride [01:00:49]:
Yeah, this is another, another product that’s been really exciting to see the popularity growing around. It’s such a smart concept and not.
Garrett McBride [01:00:56]:
Just for, you know, dry blind customers.
Garrett McBride [01:00:58]:
But for those in the liquid beverage category.
Jessica Warden [01:01:01]:
Right.
Garrett McBride [01:01:02]:
You know, shipping coconut water powder is so much more efficient than shipping coconut water. It’s spray dried coconut water.
Garrett McBride [01:01:10]:
It’s the same thing. You rehydrate it and you have coconut water. Based on what I said.
Jessica Warden [01:01:15]:
Oh, sorry. I was gonna say, not to mention just the idea of if you’re a brand and you’re looking for ways to diversify a product line but, you know, not go off too far, you could have your ready to drink options that you know, are on the refrigerated space and Then now you can develop another product that’s very same family of items using a different formulation but for the customer ends up being a new delivery method for the same type of product. And shelf space is not, not as much in the retail perspective if you’re filling a dry shelf space versus a refrigerated shelf space. So it becomes very diversifying for brands as an ingredient.
Garrett McBride [01:01:54]:
Yeah, definitely. Based on what we’ve been seeing from the production side and from the inquiries on the customer side, it doesn’t look like the popularity is going to diminish on this either. This is going to continue to grow and continue to become one of the most popular food ingredients for innovation.
Jessica Warden [01:02:13]:
Yeah. Yep.
Elisa Louis [01:02:15]:
Very exciting. All right, well, no coconut market report would be complete without talking about coconut sugar. So, Jessica, what do you have for us on coconut sugar? We’ve had some supply challenges the last months. So what are we seeing now?
Jessica Warden [01:02:34]:
Well, while no market report would be complete, I don’t, you know, have anything that’s terribly different from the things. So it might be a little bit brief as far as the update here, but we’ve seen it follow a lot of the same trends we’ve already talked about. Coconut sugar specifically really comes out of Indonesia as a growing region, so it does have some of its own unique challenges. But the biggest challenge that we saw with coconut over the last six to 12 months actually came from some of the backlogs tied to the organic new organic regulations and being able to get organic transaction certificates all the way down to the different supplier groups just because of the nature of the coconut sugar supply chain. So we started to see some of relief there. And it just seems like kind of with some of these other ones where it’s like just constant drama. I feel like that’s how coconut sugar has always been a saga around here since I’ve started. So where we have very high highs and then very low lows.
Jessica Warden [01:03:27]:
And so it seems like maybe we’re turning the corner and we have some pretty good positions built up. We’re starting to build up stocks where we’re not, you know, as hand to mouth. Our processing partners are seeing some more favorable news. But, you know, again, that raw material, the competition for raw material is a real thing that they’re, they’re facing. So the price for coconut sugar, not anticipating any softening soon. We’re just glad we’re able to get it at this point. It was kind of one of those things where it was just hard to come by at any price. So that’s kind of nice.
Jessica Warden [01:04:03]:
Definitely get in front of your trader with that item as well. Ramadan comes a little earlier this year than we’ve seen historically. So that always puts a very interesting kink in the coconut sugar supply chain just because there’s just not production happening for a very specific amount of time. So if you don’t have product on the water and ready to come in, you kind of wait for a little bit and then you have to kind of catch up. So. But that’s something that we are able to plan for. So if you’re able to get with your Sparks trading associate, they should be able to walk you through some of that and also help you with some spot needs in the meantime, because we do have finally some. We’re not hand to mouth on that one.
Garrett McBride [01:04:44]:
About time.
Jessica Warden [01:04:45]:
Yes. Yeah. And again, I knock on all the wood that is around because we’re not jinxing things.
Elisa Louis [01:04:51]:
Yeah, I hope we’re not jinxing it.
Jessica Warden [01:04:53]:
Yeah.
Elisa Louis [01:04:53]:
Anyways, at this moment, folks.
Jessica Warden [01:04:55]:
Yes. At the time of this recording.
Elisa Louis [01:04:58]:
Yes. All right, well, one more thing to round out coconut, which I find really interesting, is the coconut water concentrate. And Jessica, could you give us kind of the one on one? Not the one on one. Excuse me, the one on one.
Jessica Warden [01:05:14]:
Yes.
Elisa Louis [01:05:15]:
All about this product.
Jessica Warden [01:05:17]:
Well, what is interesting about this one is it’s kind of a newer one that we’re following in Smirk’s. It’s again, it follows the trends that we’ve seen. And so we’ve been working with processors that make coconut cream and all of these other items. Then they also make coconut water concentrate. So it’s kind of a natural progression for us. But where it’s kind of interesting and where we’re talking about it in the line of our coconut items here is you might be able to even consider this as a sweetener. So it can be used in the beverage category. And it’s often used in that way where basically the processors take the coconut water and it’s sent to some level of an evaporator.
Jessica Warden [01:05:55]:
And the evaporator is done in such a way where it’s gentle enough heat that it reduces the product’s boiling point to where the product can evaporate but without losing its nutrient density that you would see if it was your typical high heat process. So by doing that, the concentration reduces the product to typically 60 to 70 brix, which that amounts to about 15 times. So, like, if you take one serving of this and rehydrate, it gives you about 15 times the volume that it started at. It’s cooled quickly, and then it’s packed aseptically and is typically stored in. This will ship frozen, and it’s stored in frozen containers and warehousing. So that’s where we’ll see. But like Garrett said, it. It achieves a freight efficiency that is better than shipping water.
Jessica Warden [01:06:47]:
And then the piece that’s very fascinating is by being such a concentrated version of the product, it’s actually really naturally sweet. So if it’s not fully diluted, it can be added into different beverages or applications as a sweetener without having all of the natural or added sugars that are required for that labeling. So it becomes a really great option for some clean label items as well. So this one’s interesting in that some of the bigger players of coconut water concentrate, from an import perspective, we’ve seen, have kind of dialed back a little bit. So there’s a little bit of wiggle room in the market. And now here, Smirks is stepping right into that gap. And so we’re excited to really start helping customers with their coconut water concentrate needs.
Garrett McBride [01:07:36]:
That’s such a cool innovation. I mean, think about the freight efficiency there. You get. You get basically 15, 15 and a half containers shipped for the price. It’s unbelievable.
Jessica Warden [01:07:46]:
Exactly. My grandma would love a deal like that.
Garrett McBride [01:07:48]:
I love it.
Jessica Warden [01:07:49]:
So she. Yeah.
Elisa Louis [01:07:52]:
Yeah. Everybody’s looking for deals right now. There’s no.
Jessica Warden [01:07:54]:
Yeah, that’s true.
Elisa Louis [01:07:56]:
Yes. Hit us up. Hit us up for it. Right on. Well, I’m going to shift gears entirely away from coconut right now into a category that’s near and dear to my heart, dried fruits. And in addition to our tried and true dried fruits like apples and mango that Smirks has been importing, we’re kind of excited this year to emphasize more sourcing of innovative dried fruits. And a lot of these are single ingredients, so. Talk about clean ingredient decks.
Elisa Louis [01:08:30]:
The single ingredient items are pretty cool. So in general, before I get into our what this market intel unfolds, just want to say that if you’re trying to innovate in this category, please reach out to us because we’ve got some new, interesting stuff that we’re working on. And without diving too much into it, I just want to say we’ve got options for you, so hit us up. But on another note, Garrett, I have a pop question for you. What fruit is nicknamed the King of Fruits?
Garrett McBride [01:09:07]:
Oh, man.
Garrett McBride [01:09:09]:
This could go a couple different directions. I’m gonna go with mango.
Elisa Louis [01:09:12]:
Bingo. You got it. And I think that came from India because it’s just like everybody eats mango. They eat so much that they hardly Export any of the. They really don’t produce much in the way of dried mango that at least gets exported. It’s all consumed in India. So anyway, just a little bit of trivia.
Jessica Warden [01:09:35]:
Fun fact indeed, Elisa. I’m going to tell my ticket off.
Garrett McBride [01:09:42]:
Either banana or mango.
Jessica Warden [01:09:43]:
Yeah, mango.
Elisa Louis [01:09:45]:
Yeah, mango, mango. So diving into mango Mexican crop, which is typically running from about June to September or so, has definitely been challenged by droughts and changing weather patterns this past season. And of course it’s still going, but it’s definitely been causing lower yields, which it doesn’t help the growing demand because there’s just been a high, continued high interest in putting mango packing it in a bag as a straight pack or for a mix or putting it into energy bars, you name it. So prices have really remained high and supply has continued to be limited. Smirx is really, we’ve had for quite some time now the past few years, product out of Peru, but this year we’re really kind of doubling down on it. We’ve really helped our supplier boost his yield with more production capability on organic dried mangoes. So we’re pretty excited with that product expected to land somewhere around January because the season starts basically at the end of the year. We’ll start with the Edwards variety, which is not the most popular, but still a nice, more of a subtle flavor.
Elisa Louis [01:11:06]:
And then we move into the Kent, which is what most people are used to. And we’ll have a good mix of strips and of course, cheeks. And if you’re looking for organic or conventional product, please reach out to us for coverage. We do focus on organic, but we can help you with conventional as well. And honestly, I don’t know what’s going to happen because again, we’re at this moment we still have some availability, but hopefully by the time you hear this, we’ll still have availability because it is pre selling pretty fast. So anyways, Jessica, what new single ingredient dried fruit are you most excited about? Smirks importing this fall?
Jessica Warden [01:11:52]:
Well, I’m so glad that you asked, Elisa, because we started recently importing organic banana coins. We’ve always had a line on like the sweetened and unsweetened banana chips, but this product is really awesome because it’s for that different application. It’s the softer coins that seem to be a great standalone snack. Like you said, good for the straight repack. So now we have a Sri Lankan organic banana coin available. It’ll start kind of in our east coast stocks. And even with the tariffs, we’re seeing where we’re able to Offer for a pretty competitive price. So between the straight repack or trail mixes, I think it’ll be a really nice addition to our dried fruit repertoire.
Elisa Louis [01:12:38]:
Right on. I’m excited about it as well. So awesome. Looking forward to that. And dried apple has been something, of course, that Smirk’s has imported for quite some time. And of course we focus a lot on organic, but now we’ve got a great conventional supplier domestically as well. So we’ve only seen demand continue to increase for the dried apple and actually just had a huge run on the dices and sold out a lot of those. But still hit us up because we can offer this product and it’s a great single ingredient, fiber rich dried fruit that you can put in your snacks and your trail mixes, baking cereals, what have you.
Elisa Louis [01:13:30]:
And one thing that kind of stands out about the product that we import from Argentina is the fact that we can offer the apple rings. Because this is unique. You can’t really find the rings themselves. It’s a more challenging, time consuming cut to produce. Not as many suppliers do it. So you may not find it from Chile or from the U.S. but, but we do offer it out of Argentina so people will hit us up. We do have a good stock of it on the east coast, so that’s there for the picking, so to speak.
Garrett McBride [01:14:10]:
Sure, I see what you did there.
Elisa Louis [01:14:13]:
Yeah.
Jessica Warden [01:14:14]:
And Garrett’s not that quick, so way to lay that down.
Elisa Louis [01:14:21]:
How about cranberries? Jessica, do you want to fill us in on sugar infused and apple juice infused cranberries? Organics?
Jessica Warden [01:14:28]:
Yes. Yeah, Yeah. I like how you guys save all the dramatic saga filled options for me to go on about, but cranberries very much in that realm where it’s just a crop that seems to get smaller each year, where demand seems to stay firm and, or like a little bit of increased demand in organic cranberries. But the crop size and the plantings just remain tight because it’s, it’s such a. The economics associated with growing organic cranberries are just not as enticing as their conventional counterparts. So a lot of the cranberries that are grown are really focused in that conventional market. So this crop year is seeming to be no exception or shaping up to be no exception to that. And there was no carryover.
Jessica Warden [01:15:15]:
So, like, that’s the other piece that will really make this market tight. So Sparks actually had kind of a couple windfalls with cranberries over the last few months where we were able to land a few loads. So we have a small carryover of organic sugar Infused and then we’ll be waiting very patiently for organic options to be available kind of October forward. But even that is TBD a little bit with what the processors are going to be able to offer. And one of the main processors that we work with are one of the only ones to do apple juice infused. So that makes that market even that much smaller where some of the other big players really focus on the sugar infused. So all that is to say it’s going to be a tight market with supply that will likely outpace demand for from start to finish. So the earlier you can plan, the better.
Jessica Warden [01:16:11]:
And even in that case, it may make sense to start having some folks help you with alternative items and ways to get creative around that spec.
Elisa Louis [01:16:19]:
Yeah, I hear you. And you’re on a roll with, with these types of items, tight markets. I think you’re doing a great job. So I’m gonna, I’m gonna let you take over on organic golden berries as well.
Jessica Warden [01:16:33]:
I would love to echo the same sentiments. Copy or cut out cranberries, insert golden berries, basically. So similar to some of the things that impacted quinoa, the same type of weather patterns impacted the golden berries in some of the earlier growing time frames. And so there’s not a lot of raw material available. And so right now is kind of when all of that is being processed and firsthand, as you’ve been trying to service some different accounts with this item, it’s like we think, okay, we’re going to get this amount on this next container. And all of a sudden, because truly the raw material is that tight at origin, we’re getting as much as we possibly can, but it’s still really not enough to fulfill the demand that we’re seeing. So. And that’s just the small smirks picture.
Jessica Warden [01:17:23]:
So take that. Across the industry, there’s demand that’s going unfulfilled at this point, even with new crop availability. So that’ll start trickling into the United States here in the next couple months. But we do expect that one to remain tight. Pricing has firmed. It’s definitely higher this year compared to previous years. And we definitely think that if you do have any kind of projects planned around golden berries, definitely share your demand needs and forecasts with your trader and we can work to tell you where we can help and also again, give you some guidance on what’s feasible and what’s not.
Elisa Louis [01:18:04]:
All right, well, I think that wraps up quite the market report. I know this has been a lengthy one and so I appreciate our listeners hanging in, but I Hope you found some good nuggets of information here. And Jessica and Garrett, I really want to thank you for putting out all of your knowledge and insights about the different fall harvest crops. It’s been super helpful and I personally have learned a lot.
Garrett McBride [01:18:28]:
I appreciate you letting us jump in here.
Jessica Warden [01:18:31]:
Yeah. And same to you, Elisa. You always do such a wonderful job organizing these. Always a pleasure to join in with you. And I feel a little bit more equipped to go chat with customers now too, so.
Garrett McBride [01:18:42]:
Yeah.
Garrett McBride [01:18:42]:
Holy cow. That was a lot of information.
Jessica Warden [01:18:44]:
Yeah, exactly. And we’ll basically have to follow up with a 2.0 after Garrett gets back from Turkey and we can do a deep dive into the pumpkin.
Garrett McBride [01:18:53]:
Good news? You bet.
Elisa Louis [01:18:55]:
Yeah. Yes, exactly to your point. Stay tuned from Smirk’s, whether that be on LinkedIn or email updates or upcoming podcasts. So with that, I’m going to wrap up this episode 18 of get the Scoop of Smirks. And we hope that you all have found some great insights on the fall 2025 harvest market trends, pricing, wonderful tariff information, as helpful as you can for your planning in the upcoming months. And remember, supply and demand can shift quickly, so staying informed is key. And that’s what we’re here for at smerc. So hit us up when you need help.
Elisa Louis [01:19:37]:
And until next time, keep your scoop handy and happy sourcing.
Jessica Warden [01:19:42]:
Yeah, thanks, Elisa.
Elisa Louis [01:19:44]:
See you guys.
Garrett McBride [01:19:46]:
So that’s it for this episode of.
Jessica Warden [01:19:48]:
Get the Scoop with Smirk’s podcast where we bring you the latest market reports, insights into bulk ingredients and their origins as well well as in depth product information. So if you have any questions, feedback, or just want a sample to taste for yourself, visit the smerx.com website or email us at whats new smerks.com never miss a future episode. Be sure to hit the subscribe button wherever you listen to your podcasts. Thanks so much for tuning in.