This episode of Get the Scoop with Smirk’s is a dense, practical harvest briefing for bulk ingredient buyers heading into Fall 2025. Host Elisa teams up with Jessica (Sales) and Garrett (Operations) to translate field intel into concrete buying moves across nuts, seeds, grains, coconut, and dried fruit, with plain-English guidance on tariffs, timelines, and coverage.
Tariffs: How Smirk’s Handles Them and Why They Matter
- Transparency: Tariffs appear as a separate, pass-through line item on confirmations. Smirk’s does not mark them up.
- Impact: Tariff differentials are reshaping origin choices. In some cases, U.S.-grown ingredients (e.g., certain nuts/seeds) are now competitive vs. imported.
- Action: Ask for scenario quotes (domestic vs. import; China vs. non-China; EU vs. North America) to balance cost, label story, and availability.
Nuts: Category by Category
Walnuts
- Crop tone: Weather/bloom positive vs. last year, but the market is waiting for the early-September objective report.
- Pricing: Still a slight premium due to the prior short crop.
- Move: Re-enter the market in the next couple of weeks as data solidifies.
Hazelnuts
- Turkey sharply lower YoY (~480k MT + 150k MT carry) from ~920k MT; Italy ~50% of normal; Chile good but processing capacity lower.
- USA poised for a record ~119k MT (+34%) with varietal improvements (including blanching).
- Move: If you need Turkish, cover early; US origin offers quality + supply continuity; year-round booking possible.
Almonds
- Signal clash: USDA objective ~3.0B lbs. vs. industry at 2.6–2.8B. Minimal carry; organic especially tight.
- Move: Get forecasts to your trader and get on offer lists now, especially for organic.
Pistachios
- On-year: ~726k MT in-shell (+44% YoY). Exports soft near-term.
- Move: Buyer’s window now: consider forward + spot to reset budgets after last year’s surge.
Pecans
- Constraints: Hurricane Helene tree losses + off-year → 2025 crop ~22–25% lower; organic even tighter.
- Move: Lock most of your annual needs in the next few months.
Pine Nuts
- Volatile by nature: Cedars small; red variety down; China tariff headwinds; Mongolia/alt origins best value but limited.
- Move: Cover near-term; avoid over-extending unless your spec demands a specific varietal.
Macadamias
- Supply down: South Africa ~-4%; Australia ~-30%; Kenya/Guatemala help but not enough.
- Move: Early contracting to tame price risk; ask about style 1/4/6 arrivals (mid–late Sept; more in late Q4).
Cashews
- Demand up: China/India/US.
- Raw nut squeeze: Africa drought; Vietnam monsoons; Brazil functionally sidelined into US by tariffs (esp. organic).
- Spec note: Whole kernels OK; brokens getting scarce.
- Move: Share grade mix + monthly volumes; secure brokens early.
Brazil Nuts
- Severe disruption: Amazon drought + Bolivia political/economic instability (collection violence, FX shortages). Brazil communities lost up to 80%; overall -30–45% vs. normal.
- Outlook: One of the tightest years; high prices likely through 2026.
- Move: Pull the trigger if you see availability at workable levels.
Seeds & Grains
Sunflower
- US: Confection acres down (shift to black oil/crush; pesticide/weevil considerations).
- EU: Harvest underway in Eastern Europe; yields slightly better than last year.
- Tariff math: Conventional US often cost-advantaged vs. Bulgaria when tariffs apply; organic tends to be better value from EU.
- Move: Decide on domestic vs. EU by spec/cert and tariff math; lock while markets are flat.
Pumpkin (Shineskin & GWS)
- China: New crop started; conventional buoyed by carry; organic tight; rains introduce uncertainty.
- Big update: Smirk’s is advancing an exclusive Turkish shineskin (and GWS) pipeline, Garrett qualifying farms/lines in early Sept.
- Move: Book China conventional now; for organic/non-China labels, talk to us about Turkey plans and timing.
Chia
- Shock: Late frost in Paraguay; some estimates ~50% loss; zero carry.
- Move: Treat as critically tight, secure organic/pasteurized first.
Flax / Sesame / Amaranth
- India tariffs volatile; Canadian organic flax seeded area at historic lows → potential tightness.
- Move: Be flexible on origin/spec; explore Canada/US/EU options; cover earlier than usual.
Oats
- Canada: Good season; planted up ~5–7%; moderate carry; demand rising.
- Move: Availability should be fine; early contracts = budget stability.
Quinoa (and flakes)
- PE/BO weather delays has created a tight crop, firming prices through year; smaller November harvest unlikely to relieve much.
- Move: Plan ahead, especially for flakes.
Coconut Complex
Macro: Strong global demand (China), weather swings, and raw nut scarcity keep prices elevated across VCO/RBD oil, desiccated (fine/medium, chips, smiles), cream, milk powder, water powder, sugar, and water concentrate.
Practical guidance: Where possible, cover through Q1–Q2 2026.
- Oil: VCO available; RBD tighter; costs near historic highs.
- Desiccated: Flow improving vs. last 3–6 months; demand surges by cut; cover through Q1 (and possibly Q2).
- Coconut Cream: Popularity rising; availability challenged but stabilizing; expect higher baseline costs.
- Coconut Milk Powder (CMP): Smirk’s exclusivity with a top Vietnam producer (surgical-clean spray-dry line). Request samples.
- Coconut Water Powder: Efficient for hydration RTMs and RTD adjacencies; demand climbing.
- Coconut Sugar (ID): Supply improving but not soft; plan around Ramadan production pauses.
- Coconut Water Concentrate (60–70°Bx): ~15:1 reconstitution; doubles as clean-label sweetener; aseptic/frozen—huge freight efficiency.
Dried Fruit
- Mango: Mexico drought constrained; Peru (Edwards → Kent) lands ~January; pre-selling brisk.
- New: Organic Banana Coins (Sri Lanka) provide soft texture; great for repack/mixes; competitive even with tariffs.
- Apples: Demand strong; Argentina apple rings (rare cut) in East Coast stock; US conventional partner added.
- Cranberries (organic): No carry; AJ-infused capacity limited; book early or consider spec flexibility.
- Golden Berries: Raw material tight; prices up; allocations likely, signal projects now.
Buyer Playbook: What to Do Next
- Send 9–12-month forecasts for tight items: organic almonds, pecans, chia, Brazil nuts, quinoa/flakes, coconut complex, cranberries, golden berries.
- Exploit favorable windows: pistachios (now), sunflower (flat markets), oats (strong crop).
- Decide label/origin strategy early: inquire about US hazelnuts, Turkish shineskin pumpkin, Vietnam CMP, EU organics vs. North American options.
- Plan around tariffs: ask for side-by-side landed scenarios; remember Smirk’s passes tariffs through without markup.
- Prioritize specs at risk: organic, pasteurized, and broken grades (cashews) need earlier contracting.
Supply is improving in a few places (pistachios, oats), but several headline categories remain tight and tariff-sensitive (organic almonds/pecans, chia, Brazil nuts, quinoa/flakes, coconut complex, organic cranberries/golden berries).
Smirk’s is expanding non-China options (e.g., Turkish shineskin pumpkin) and locked in exclusive capacity on Vietnam coconut milk powder to give buyers more resilient choices. The through-line is simple: share forecasts, decide your origin/label strategy, and lock coverage where risk is highest. If you want help mapping a quarter-by-quarter plan (with alternates), send your item list and we’ll build it out.
For detailed information, and coverage requests contact your Smirk’s trader and we’ll build a plan or email: whatsnew@smirks.com